estuprador
0x22c2c67ba3d127cfa13bcb7de199d71bff839d56
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $553.7k
- Markets traded
- 202
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded202
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.935 | $1.1k | +$65.61 |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · Yes | 0.837 | 0.994 | $745.50 | +$118.00 |
| Will Valve add sticker trade-ups before November? · No | 0.875 | 0.875 | $224.79 | −$0.10 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.883 | 0.923 | $175.47 | +$7.60 |
| Will USD/BRL hit 4 (Low) in 2026? · No | 0.871 | 0.875 | $101.05 | +$0.42 |
| Will USD/BRL hit 3.75 (Low) in 2026? · No | 0.876 | 0.935 | $93.55 | +$5.95 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$372.78at 0.988Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$246.77at 0.932Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$240.98at 0.985Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- +$203.66at 0.974Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
- +$140.35at 0.983Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 22:22 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.4k |
| 07-08 11:09 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $1.3k |
| 07-07 18:37 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.903 | $993.30 |
| 07-05 04:26 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.9 | $99.00 |
| 06-30 12:00 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.0k |
| 06-28 21:02 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $204.59 |
| 06-28 21:02 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $499.50 |
| 06-27 21:04 | Will Amazon acquire TikTok? | SELL | 0.997 | $303.24 |
| 06-27 20:56 | Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $48.06 |
| 06-27 20:56 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $290.42 |
| 06-27 01:47 | Trump out as President by June 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.1k |
| 06-26 01:20 | Trump out as President by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $2.0k |
| 06-25 20:08 | Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $709.01 |
| 06-25 20:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? | SELL | 0.998 | $199.60 |
| 06-20 13:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | SELL | 0.993 | $2.0k |