estuprador
0x22c2c67ba3d127cfa13bcb7de199d71bff839d56
- Realised P&L
- $3.5k
- Volume
- $647.7k
- Markets traded
- 245
- Open portfolio
- $25.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded245
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$591.85at 0.987Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$372.56at 0.988Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$240.98at 0.985Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- +$227.77at 0.932Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$203.66at 0.974Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 14:15 | Brazil declares emergency rule in Brasília by January 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $85.52 |
| 10-28 01:34 | Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31? | BUY | 0.9485753724 | $1.2k |
| 10-26 22:03 | Will Valve add sticker trade-ups before November? | BUY | 0.991 | $99.10 |
| 10-26 21:59 | Will Valve add sticker trade-ups before November? | BUY | 0.9891436357 | $127.06 |
| 10-26 20:07 | Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $939.78 |
| 10-26 20:05 | Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31? | BUY | 0.959 | $210.02 |
| 10-25 23:53 | Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? | BUY | 0.985 | $309.75 |
| 10-25 23:43 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Alagoas? | BUY | 0.9939845113 | $659.72 |
| 10-25 23:36 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo? | BUY | 0.9929594303 | $524.26 |
| 10-25 23:35 | Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? | BUY | 0.9869303403 | $136.30 |
| 10-25 23:33 | Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? | BUY | 0.9672794647 | $18.79 |
| 10-25 23:31 | Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? | BUY | 0.964 | $64.59 |
| 10-25 23:31 | Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election? | BUY | 0.9647087018 | $244.34 |
| 10-25 22:45 | Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.9925075587 | $453.67 |
| 10-25 13:53 | Will Valve add sticker trade-ups before November? | BUY | 0.9897957222 | $210.09 |