0x228859377F93c9e5921BE691296b87d3f61700C6-1768373980803
0x228859377f93c9e5921be691296b87d3f61700c6
- Realised P&L
- $4.46
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $8.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration50.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.205 | $4.10 | −$0.70 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.205 | $4.10 | −$2.10 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.40 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.24 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.12 |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$131.20at 0.600US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$42.77at 0.530Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$28.80at 0.280US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$-5.64at 0.094Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
- +$-9.99at 0.270Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 09:13 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 07-19 09:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 04-09 16:00 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.53 | $48.23 |
| 04-09 15:47 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $50.24 |
| 04-05 05:59 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.79 |
| 03-31 13:02 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6 | $196.80 |
| 03-03 02:46 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.24 | $6.00 |
| 03-03 02:44 | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 02-18 17:07 | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.112 | $1.12 |
| 02-18 17:06 | US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 02-18 17:05 | US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 02-18 13:19 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $11.20 |
| 01-23 20:19 | US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $98.40 |
| 01-23 19:42 | Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.1025 | $5.13 |
| 01-18 12:18 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |