qianbei
0x21103440efb7e3f8c36361a80a9e30a95c1645c4
- Realised P&L
- $-872.18
- Volume
- $258.9k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$762.04at 0.500Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$749.86at 0.500Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$32.63at 0.870Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- +$27.20at 0.393Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?
- +$21.84at 0.960Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 10:43 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.024 | $19.20 |
| 09-02 10:43 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.027 | $21.60 |
| 09-02 10:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3938818625 | $315.11 |
| 09-02 10:43 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.56 | $448.00 |
| 09-02 10:42 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.7502557736 | $1.2k |
| 09-02 10:42 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.251 | $401.60 |
| 09-02 10:42 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.914 | $914.00 |
| 09-02 10:41 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.085 | $85.00 |
| 08-19 18:22 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? | SELL | 0.05 | $99.34 |
| 08-19 18:22 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? | SELL | 0.0286711499 | $167.43 |
| 08-19 18:07 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? | BUY | 0.03 | $45.00 |
| 08-19 18:07 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? | BUY | 0.06 | $60.00 |
| 08-19 16:21 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | SELL | 0.21 | $159.76 |
| 08-19 16:21 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.12 | $419.30 |
| 08-19 16:20 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? | SELL | 0.028 | $121.51 |