PolyBot

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Traders

qianbei

0x21103440efb7e3f8c36361a80a9e30a95c1645c4

Realised P&L
$-872.18
Volume
$258.9k
Markets traded
62
Open portfolio
$2.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded62
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.7500.789$1.3k+$62.40
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.3940.562$449.60+$134.49
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.5600.425$340.00$108.00
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2510.210$336.80$64.80
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.8800.963$192.50+$16.50
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? · No0.9570.986$112.63+$3.26
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.9320.859$107.31$9.16
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0270.009$7.60$14.00
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes0.0030.001$3.10$15.50
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0240.002$1.20$18.00
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.9210.000$0.00$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-02 10:43Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.024$19.20
09-02 10:43Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.027$21.60
09-02 10:43Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.3938818625$315.11
09-02 10:43Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.56$448.00
09-02 10:42Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.7502557736$1.2k
09-02 10:42Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.251$401.60
09-02 10:42Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.914$914.00
09-02 10:41Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.085$85.00
08-19 18:22US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?SELL0.05$99.34
08-19 18:22US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?SELL0.0286711499$167.43
08-19 18:07US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?BUY0.03$45.00
08-19 18:07US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?BUY0.06$60.00
08-19 16:21US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?SELL0.21$159.76
08-19 16:21US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?SELL0.12$419.30
08-19 16:20US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?SELL0.028$121.51