arbmesh
0x1f6f0e5a664b89a835e31322053a3253fb166b57
- Realised P&L
- $25.80
- Volume
- $7.9k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $465.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.86at 0.992Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$8.87at 0.956Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
- +$7.95at 0.763Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$7.59at 0.926Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$6.30at 0.139Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:41 | Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections? | BUY | 0.3 | $2.10 |
| 11-01 22:41 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $4.69 |
| 11-01 22:41 | Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections? | SELL | 0.27 | $0.84 |
| 11-01 22:41 | Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.62 |
| 11-01 22:41 | Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and Republicans win Nebraska? | SELL | 0.32 | $0.99 |
| 11-01 22:41 | Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? | SELL | 0.226 | $0.70 |
| 11-01 21:25 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $4.26 |
| 11-01 21:25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.856 | $5.14 |
| 11-01 21:25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%? | BUY | 0.73 | $4.38 |
| 11-01 21:25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%? | BUY | 0.977 | $5.86 |
| 11-01 21:25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more? | BUY | 0.981 | $5.89 |
| 11-01 21:25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%? | BUY | 0.67 | $4.02 |
| 11-01 21:24 | Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? | BUY | 0.233 | $1.63 |
| 11-01 21:24 | Will Republicans win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? | BUY | 0.007 | $0.05 |
| 11-01 21:24 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $5.04 |