PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

arbmesh

0x1f6f0e5a664b89a835e31322053a3253fb166b57

Realised P&L
$25.80
Volume
$7.9k
Markets traded
79
Open portfolio
$465.83

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded79
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.7160.705$69.80−$1.04
Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska? · No0.7900.795$60.02+$0.38
Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and Republicans win Nebraska? · No0.6650.675$50.96+$0.78
Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? · No0.7710.771$43.59−$0.00
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.7110.715$29.32+$0.16
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · No0.5200.525$28.88+$0.28
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · No0.7200.715$28.60−$0.20
Will Republicans sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections? · Yes0.4300.440$24.20+$0.55
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes0.6750.716$20.05+$1.15
Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections? · No0.7200.720$15.48−$0.00
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.7400.715$10.72−$0.38
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? · No0.6590.665$10.64+$0.10
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · No0.2750.264$10.28−$0.44
Will Republicans win the Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats? · Yes0.1960.205$9.22+$0.42
Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? · Yes0.2330.229$8.43−$0.18

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 22:41Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?BUY0.3$2.10
11-01 22:41Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?BUY0.67$4.69
11-01 22:41Will Republicans sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?SELL0.27$0.84
11-01 22:41Will Democrats win the Texas Senate seat, and Republicans win Kansas and Nebraska?SELL0.2$0.62
11-01 22:41Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and Republicans win Nebraska?SELL0.32$0.99
11-01 22:41Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?SELL0.226$0.70
11-01 21:25Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.71$4.26
11-01 21:25Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?BUY0.856$5.14
11-01 21:25Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?BUY0.73$4.38
11-01 21:25Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?BUY0.977$5.86
11-01 21:25Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?BUY0.981$5.89
11-01 21:25Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?BUY0.67$4.02
11-01 21:24Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?BUY0.233$1.63
11-01 21:24Will Republicans win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska?BUY0.007$0.05
11-01 21:24Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?BUY0.72$5.04