opinioneer
0x1f4074fd999949e0ee9988f7247a45bcd1dae9a8
- Realised P&L
- $-149.56
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $343.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.374 | $108.71 | −$12.34 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.616 | 0.625 | $106.33 | +$1.61 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · No | 0.808 | 0.903 | $48.85 | +$5.11 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.928 | 0.973 | $43.76 | +$2.00 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.768 | $21.52 | −$3.12 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.195 | $11.70 | −$0.90 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes | 0.149 | 0.097 | $2.42 | −$1.30 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.80 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.80 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$82.35 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.05 |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$63.00at 0.370MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$39.59at 0.604Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$23.40at 0.820Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$19.28at 0.837SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
- +$0.60at 0.980Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 14:13 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $12.60 |
| 09-07 15:18 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.928 | $41.76 |
| 08-16 03:02 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.149 | $2.38 |
| 07-18 03:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.592 | $59.20 |
| 06-20 13:56 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.8087330211 | $34.53 |
| 06-20 13:48 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.808 | $9.21 |
| 05-16 08:30 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.501 | $25.05 |
| 04-29 13:15 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | BUY | 0.88 | $24.64 |
| 04-07 12:45 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.14 | $9.80 |
| 04-05 13:24 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.80 |
| 03-23 14:52 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $29.40 |
| 03-22 10:44 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 03-14 04:37 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.8366101695 | $98.72 |
| 03-14 04:31 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.82 | $106.60 |
| 03-14 04:30 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.616 | $104.72 |