PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

opinioneer

0x1f4074fd999949e0ee9988f7247a45bcd1dae9a8

Realised P&L
$-149.56
Volume
$3.4k
Markets traded
15
Open portfolio
$343.30

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded15
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.4170.374$108.71−$12.34
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.6160.625$106.33+$1.61
AI bubble burst in 2026? · No0.8080.903$48.85+$5.11
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.9280.973$43.76+$2.00
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · Yes0.8800.768$21.52−$3.12
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.2100.195$11.70−$0.90
AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes0.1490.097$2.42−$1.30
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No0.8600.000$0.00−$25.80
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · No0.1400.000$0.00−$9.80
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? · No0.6100.000$0.00−$82.35
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.3800.000$0.00−$79.05
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? · No0.0550.000$0.00−$95.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-28 14:13Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.21$12.60
09-07 15:18Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.928$41.76
08-16 03:02AI bubble burst in 2026?BUY0.149$2.38
07-18 03:10Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.592$59.20
06-20 13:56AI bubble burst in 2026?BUY0.8087330211$34.53
06-20 13:48AI bubble burst in 2026?BUY0.808$9.21
05-16 08:30Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?BUY0.501$25.05
04-29 13:15OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?BUY0.88$24.64
04-07 12:45Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?BUY0.14$9.80
04-05 13:24SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?BUY0.07$2.80
03-23 14:52Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?BUY0.98$29.40
03-22 10:44MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?BUY0.37$37.00
03-14 04:37SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?BUY0.8366101695$98.72
03-14 04:31Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY0.82$106.60
03-14 04:30Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.616$104.72