0x1EF3494f173914072bC5dE2E3dB0460DDB1227Fb-1770781937671
0x1ef3494f173914072bc5de2e3db0460ddb1227fb
- Realised P&L
- $1.73
- Volume
- $487.99
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $17.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human moon landing in 2026? · No | 0.946 | 0.988 | $4.18 | +$0.18 |
| Canada's population Up or Down this year? · Up | 0.590 | 0.465 | $2.36 | −$0.64 |
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? · Yes | 0.710 | 1.000 | $2.11 | +$0.61 |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No | 0.954 | 0.987 | $2.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.988 | $1.63 | +$0.04 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.979 | $1.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.955 | 1.000 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.942 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.745 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.009 | $0.55 | −$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.87at 0.820Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?
- +$0.45at 0.110Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
- +$0.33at 0.900Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.32at 0.760US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
- +$0.31at 0.866Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-30 07:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9299993671 | $1.44 |
| 04-23 23:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.919999448 | $1.00 |
| 04-23 06:33 | Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.91 | $0.99 |
| 04-22 00:32 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0170000001 | $1.10 |
| 04-21 16:15 | Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.47 |
| 04-19 21:22 | Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7899995339 | $0.98 |
| 04-19 21:17 | Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 | SELL | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 04-17 21:05 | Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.92 | $0.99 |
| 04-17 21:03 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $0.99 |
| 04-17 20:48 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 17? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.02 |
| 04-17 20:48 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 17? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.21 |
| 04-17 19:00 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 17? | BUY | 0.814 | $0.99 |
| 04-17 18:57 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.961 | $0.99 |
| 04-17 18:51 | NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 17? | BUY | 0.9779999883 | $1.00 |
| 04-17 02:35 | Will Ally Financial (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $0.99 |