0x1e721df39686ab9ad81a383c70a5eedf31d7636b
0x1e721df39686ab9ad81a383c70a5eedf31d7636b
- Realised P&L
- $4.46
- Volume
- $298.15
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $3.04
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.365 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.170 | $0.84 | −$0.75 |
| Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.260 | $0.84 | −$0.75 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.245 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.003 | $0.01 | −$1.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.30at 0.270Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$4.25at 0.278Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on September 10?
- +$4.04at 0.288Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$3.14at 0.247Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$3.04at 0.349Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 09:29 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 12:19 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 04:05 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 03:20 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 11:26 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 30? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 03:16 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 15:02 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 05:28 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 29? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 21:26 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $193 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 13:14 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 28? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 05:09 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:09 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:01 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $510 in September? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 18:37 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in September? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:29 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |