nononononono
0x1e5a5afb589e9aebd264e394d5c9543d3860d56e
- Realised P&L
- $3.9k
- Volume
- $505.3k
- Markets traded
- 486
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded486
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.362Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.521Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?
- +$1.1kat 0.697Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?
- +$1.0kat 0.334Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?
- +$720.00at 0.280Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 13:06 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $38.00 |
| 11-01 12:59 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $4.75 |
| 10-30 07:31 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.089 | $19.58 |
| 10-30 07:30 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.089 | $26.70 |
| 10-30 07:29 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.089 | $26.70 |
| 10-30 07:28 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $62.00 |
| 10-28 09:52 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.183 | $43.92 |
| 10-28 09:51 | Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.82 | $44.99 |
| 10-27 12:25 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.099 | $17.82 |
| 10-22 15:24 | Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $38.40 |
| 10-20 11:57 | Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.2 | $37.42 |
| 10-20 11:17 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.151 | $11.32 |
| 10-20 11:14 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 10-19 04:59 | Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.065 | $13.00 |
| 10-13 14:23 | Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.14 | $28.00 |