nk13
0x1e1bbf689b72312c46a7b973e1130f03a6110c00
- Realised P&L
- $-426.44
- Volume
- $13.3k
- Markets traded
- 198
- Open portfolio
- $506.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded198
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.39at 0.567Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
- +$53.11at 0.615Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$44.39at 0.724Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
- +$31.19at 0.791Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$21.49at 0.820Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 23:28 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $6.63 |
| 09-16 21:02 | Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.62 |
| 09-15 09:01 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999973 | $3.26 |
| 09-09 17:48 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.4599999799 | $2.74 |
| 09-09 17:46 | Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 17:43 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999843 | $15.00 |
| 09-09 17:41 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.8699999847 | $5.68 |
| 09-09 17:40 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999848 | $20.00 |
| 09-09 06:42 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | BUY | 0.8599999867 | $5.17 |
| 09-01 18:05 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.32 |
| 09-01 18:04 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.974 | $2.44 |
| 09-01 08:18 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999918 | $2.97 |
| 09-01 08:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199998283 | $3.00 |
| 09-01 08:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 08:15 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3689999605 | $4.48 |