0x1D7d5A902116fBb24B937d1E413e4B4f818432AC-1768037178035
0x1d7d5a902116fbb24b937d1e413e4b4f818432ac
- Realised P&L
- $77.61
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $30.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$97.21at 0.083Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$60.18at 0.397Will England win on 2026-07-01?
- +$34.72at 0.224Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$21.92at 0.024Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$19.74at 0.070Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 18:41 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4149999955 | $30.00 |
| 07-11 21:53 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.1825 | $6.39 |
| 07-03 19:51 | Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 07-03 18:40 | Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.09 | $5.31 |
| 07-01 20:35 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 07-01 20:34 | Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? | SELL | 0.47 | $9.40 |
| 07-01 18:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 07-01 18:18 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.585 | $11.70 |
| 07-01 18:08 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.1630566038 | $4.32 |
| 07-01 18:05 | Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 07-01 18:01 | Will England win on 2026-07-01? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 07-01 17:15 | Will England win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 07-01 06:37 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.9602702703 | $106.59 |
| 06-30 18:26 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.88 |
| 06-22 18:50 | Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? | BUY | 0.13 | $4.55 |