RiseFromTheAshes
0x1d5ce0a272ba0d3340fe1daba63478a06c1d55df
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $1.60M
- Markets traded
- 257
- Open portfolio
- $759.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded257
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.7kat 0.520Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
- +$4.8kat 0.723US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.4kat 0.153US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$2.6kat 0.527Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.780Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 03:56 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.75728155 | $50.00 |
| 09-29 03:54 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? | BUY | 0.3499999997 | $50.00 |
| 09-26 07:57 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $38.98 |
| 09-26 07:55 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.2099999998 | $122.55 |
| 09-26 07:55 | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | SELL | 0.3237403225 | $125.87 |
| 09-26 07:54 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $36.00 |
| 09-26 07:53 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $36.09 |
| 09-26 07:51 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.0899999999 | $11.78 |
| 09-24 07:31 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $40.05 |
| 09-21 20:34 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $25.91 |
| 09-21 20:34 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | SELL | 0.111078943 | $26.82 |
| 09-19 00:31 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $30.10 |
| 09-19 00:31 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0296254189 | $31.30 |
| 09-18 10:37 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.1899999996 | $57.42 |
| 09-18 10:35 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | SELL | 0.1 | $59.09 |