RiseFromTheAshes
0x1d5ce0a272ba0d3340fe1daba63478a06c1d55df
- Realised P&L
- $11.70
- Volume
- $1.54M
- Markets traded
- 228
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded228
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.085 | $992.08 | −$310.80 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.085 | $430.73 | −$39.38 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.622 | 0.655 | $226.38 | +$11.49 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.155 | $135.42 | −$9.72 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET · Up | 0.582 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$346.29 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 28? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August? · No | 0.242 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.7kat 0.520Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
- +$4.8kat 0.723US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.4kat 0.153US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$2.6kat 0.527Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.780Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 02:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $54.14 |
| 08-02 02:35 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August? | BUY | 0.2417794971 | $50.00 |
| 08-02 02:32 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6806102993 | $200.00 |
| 07-24 09:22 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2876623725 | $14.89 |
| 07-24 09:22 | Nothing Ever Happens: July | SELL | 0.743 | $14.85 |
| 07-23 11:35 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999845 | $37.42 |
| 07-22 11:59 | Nothing Ever Happens: July | BUY | 0.847 | $16.93 |
| 07-20 18:51 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999987 | $91.00 |
| 07-20 18:51 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7290369417 | $100.00 |
| 07-17 05:41 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999897 | $10.51 |
| 07-17 05:40 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | SELL | 0.2110027216 | $10.85 |
| 07-17 05:20 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999929 | $11.27 |
| 07-17 05:19 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | SELL | 0.2111955547 | $11.31 |
| 07-14 07:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | BUY | 0.3058451205 | $32.11 |
| 07-14 07:31 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | BUY | 0.5799478024 | $70.00 |