0x1d4fa513761dd18ef36b6705834f922111c697f8-1792439161702
0x1d4fa513761dd18ef36b6705834f922111c697f8
- Realised P&L
- $108.40
- Volume
- $7.6k
- Markets traded
- 226
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded226
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.10at 0.413Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$49.76at 0.737Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$33.43at 0.270Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$31.79at 0.714Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$25.72at 0.736Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:27 | Blue wave in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.79 |
| 11-01 18:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 11-01 17:53 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 11-01 17:30 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.96 | $88.20 |
| 11-01 14:28 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more? | BUY | 0.94 | $17.15 |
| 11-01 14:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.426 | $65.87 |
| 11-01 00:26 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 11-01 00:07 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 10-31 23:50 | Israel Election: Arab party disqualified? | BUY | 0.977 | $4.88 |
| 10-31 23:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.425 | $2.32 |
| 10-31 22:24 | Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 10-31 22:06 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 10-31 21:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.422 | $0.13 |
| 10-31 20:12 | Tusk out by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 10-31 18:55 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.99 |