qpaor
0x1c9306d09fc6e80b1c9177e522e579ce5c9946db
- Realised P&L
- $-1.84
- Volume
- $60.4k
- Markets traded
- 140
- Open portfolio
- $38.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded140
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.82at 0.007Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$3.56at 0.644Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$2.57at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
- +$1.25at 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 17?
- +$1.01at 0.988Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 10:08 | Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999937 | $3.00 |
| 09-30 10:08 | Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.00 |
| 09-30 10:08 | Iran leadership change by November 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 10:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:07 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.8099999352 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:06 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:05 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.403 | $0.62 |
| 08-28 11:45 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.9399999906 | $4.00 |
| 08-28 11:45 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $6.00 |
| 08-28 11:44 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.9549999992 | $6.00 |
| 08-28 11:44 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.66 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 11:44 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.8899994126 | $1.00 |