PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Touge

0x1c44887d6006ecb831f13fcb20b7e51395276c6b

Realised P&L
$912.96
Volume
$1.11M
Markets traded
548
Open portfolio
$504.82

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded548
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israeli Knesset election annulled? · Yes0.0350.035$21.26+$0.26
New pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0250.018$21.24−$8.76
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0420.033$16.63−$4.37
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0170.018$13.06+$1.06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.0410.029$12.82−$5.64
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0380.024$12.57−$7.76
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0440.043$11.86−$0.14
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes0.0350.034$11.65−$0.34
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0220.021$11.18−$0.82
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31? · Yes0.0340.030$10.76−$1.24
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes0.0410.036$10.58−$1.31
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0410.035$10.10−$1.90
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0350.022$10.08−$5.50
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0240.021$9.89−$1.91
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0410.035$9.41−$1.81

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 10:10Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.007$0.01
10-30 04:59Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?SELL0.019$0.16
10-30 04:59Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?SELL0.01822$9.11
10-30 04:59Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?SELL0.01487$4.46
10-30 04:59Will Patrick Von Dohlen win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?SELL0.0093475862$0.27
10-30 04:59Will the Democratic Party win the OH-14 House seat?SELL0.0236980467$7.73
10-30 04:59Will the Republican Party win the CA-30 House seat?SELL0.005$0.18
10-27 03:59Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?SELL0.001$0.25
10-27 03:59Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by October 31?SELL0.0092459$3.70
10-27 03:59Saudi troops enter Sanaa by October 31, 2026?SELL0.01$1.03
10-27 03:59Cornell President out by October 31?SELL0.004$0.86
10-27 03:59Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?SELL0.002$0.62
10-27 03:59Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?SELL0.002$0.22
10-27 03:59Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?SELL0.0031559583$0.76
10-27 03:59Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?SELL0.001$0.50