0x1bf68055711cfe64f63609352b7b4f346fff2ecd
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $282.8k
- Markets traded
- 160
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded160
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.502 | $1.2k | +$539.73 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.361 | 0.360 | $254.98 | −$0.35 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.065 | $130.00 | +$30.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.039 | $48.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.069 | $29.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.075 | $28.13 | −$1.88 |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.070 | $26.81 | −$3.19 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.018 | $2.14 | −$0.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.070Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
- +$1.2kat 0.253US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$982.24at 0.495Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$817.01at 0.229Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$573.12at 0.170Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 15:45 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0225907472 | $2.76 |
| 09-17 15:45 | Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.069 | $30.00 |
| 09-17 15:45 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $30.00 |
| 09-17 15:45 | Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0788937385 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 13:39 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3609999995 | $75.00 |
| 09-16 12:42 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3609999999 | $180.33 |
| 09-15 21:39 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.9805100133 | $133.17 |
| 09-15 11:38 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.04 | $50.00 |
| 09-12 21:50 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 21:50 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.40444056 | $50.00 |
| 09-12 21:49 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.1360184251 | $62.01 |
| 09-12 06:29 | Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | SELL | 0.0612798344 | $105.83 |
| 09-12 06:27 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.219341974 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 12:45 | Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.1158109042 | $200.00 |
| 09-09 03:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $204.29 |