0x1b0d557c27feea8b9cce49943de1ef8651e5e9e9
0x1b0d557c27feea8b9cce49943de1ef8651e5e9e9
- Realised P&L
- $49.54
- Volume
- $727.16
- Markets traded
- 91
- Open portfolio
- $42.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded91
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.973 | $31.44 | +$1.44 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.699 | 0.825 | $5.90 | +$0.90 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.993 | $2.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.971 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AL-06 House seat? · No | 0.950 | 0.983 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.959 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.24at 0.086US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$13.93at 0.397MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.10at 0.247Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- +$4.84at 0.177Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
- +$4.26at 0.190US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 00:46 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September? | BUY | 0.9899990298 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 00:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September? | BUY | 0.9899990298 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 00:03 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 08-24 00:06 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9709999981 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 00:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 08-11 00:13 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 23:45 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 19:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 02:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7899995339 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 21:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:46 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 20:41 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999236 | $1.65 |
| 08-01 20:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |