nofreelunch
0x19f83e2cd86e19468acb5a3621971d2ba662fa4d
- Realised P&L
- $-634.54
- Volume
- $83.1k
- Markets traded
- 471
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded471
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$165.67at 0.824Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?
- +$78.74at 0.593Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
- +$75.19at 0.690Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$74.31at 0.615Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
- +$62.77at 0.730US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-06 13:15 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999757 | $25.00 |
| 06-06 13:12 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.101846462 | $70.00 |
| 05-21 13:53 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.2899999956 | $30.00 |
| 05-21 13:49 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | BUY | 0.7499999719 | $20.00 |
| 05-21 13:48 | Will Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0805357642 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 13:48 | Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? | BUY | 0.2669895897 | $20.00 |
| 05-21 13:47 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0690048064 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 13:46 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1801772741 | $100.00 |
| 05-13 13:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 13:58 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1405755328 | $50.00 |
| 05-13 13:53 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.014207898 | $50.00 |
| 05-13 13:53 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0556293974 | $50.00 |
| 05-09 17:47 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999946 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 17:47 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.440999994 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 17:47 | Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0229999978 | $10.00 |