PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

nofreelunch

0x19f83e2cd86e19468acb5a3621971d2ba662fa4d

Realised P&L
$-634.54
Volume
$83.1k
Markets traded
471
Open portfolio
$1.3k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded471
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration56.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9140.975$213.27+$13.27
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.8950.955$127.98+$7.98
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3720.460$123.52+$23.52
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9200.965$104.84+$4.84
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2460.278$101.42+$11.42
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1310.065$89.36$90.64
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? · Yes0.1701.000$66.82+$55.46
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.6200.875$35.28+$10.28
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? · Yes0.6510.500$23.04$6.96
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · No0.8300.955$23.01+$3.01
Will US annex any territory in 2026? · No0.8400.967$23.01+$3.01
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No0.8200.870$21.22+$1.22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9200.945$20.54+$0.54
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027? · No0.9110.930$20.42+$0.42
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.7500.955$19.10+$4.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-06 13:15Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?BUY0.6199999757$25.00
06-06 13:12Trump out as President before 2027?BUY0.101846462$70.00
05-21 13:53GTA 6 launch postponed again?BUY0.2899999956$30.00
05-21 13:49Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?BUY0.7499999719$20.00
05-21 13:48Will Trump praise Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?BUY0.0805357642$10.00
05-21 13:48Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?BUY0.2669895897$20.00
05-21 13:47Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?BUY0.0690048064$10.00
05-21 13:46MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1801772741$100.00
05-13 13:59Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.2299999869$10.00
05-13 13:58MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1405755328$50.00
05-13 13:53Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.014207898$50.00
05-13 13:53Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.0556293974$50.00
05-09 17:47Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.0599999946$10.00
05-09 17:47Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.440999994$10.00
05-09 17:47Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.0229999978$10.00