0x196c61f05faa40f9e5b22bce33e1f10584adab66
- Realised P&L
- $-3.23
- Volume
- $67.77
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $3.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.205 | $2.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.165 | $1.22 | −$0.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.83at 0.598Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.63at 0.864Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
- +$0.60at 0.836Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$0.19at 0.940Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$-5.22at 0.219Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 08:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 15:26 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.8259999631 | $3.00 |
| 07-20 17:29 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 07-20 10:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.8599999957 | $4.00 |
| 07-20 09:47 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999456 | $3.00 |
| 07-20 08:55 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.931999703 | $3.00 |
| 07-16 16:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5829999684 | $7.00 |