kosty32222
0x195e6a3e3b2894ce100b17e93c1c398a894ac633
- Realised P&L
- $-149.57
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $168.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.90at 0.636US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
- +$15.20at 0.240Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?
- +$12.50at 0.583Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$11.79at 0.607Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
- +$7.20at 0.640Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 11:37 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $12.50 |
| 08-20 14:12 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 08-20 13:57 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $8.60 |
| 08-14 13:54 | Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $0.63 |
| 05-21 11:06 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.39 |
| 04-03 10:42 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.80 |
| 04-01 12:42 | Will Russia enter Serhiivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.09 | $0.45 |
| 04-01 10:25 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.97 |
| 03-25 06:37 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 03-24 14:33 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.46 |
| 03-24 14:32 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 03-20 10:37 | Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.50 |
| 03-18 10:25 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 03-16 13:24 | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 03-15 13:18 | Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $3.30 |