PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Melanziana

0x18b227723b721c67e33ede08086f6c43dfd334fa

Realised P&L
$8.97
Volume
$1.2k
Markets traded
111
Open portfolio
$37.93

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded111
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · No0.1800.825$9.17+$7.17
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.7670.710$6.48$0.52
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes0.3680.255$6.24$2.76
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? · Yes0.7800.860$5.51+$0.51
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.1800.466$2.59+$1.59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.7600.705$1.86$0.14
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4300.605$1.41+$0.41
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes0.4100.535$1.30+$0.30
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes0.8500.880$1.04+$0.04
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes0.4000.305$0.76$0.24
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3300.051$0.62$3.38
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2800.045$0.48$2.52
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.5500.065$0.47$3.53
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? · Yes0.7400.000$0.00$3.00
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · No0.0020.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 12:04Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?BUY0.2299999782$2.00
08-31 15:01Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?BUY0.4299999505$2.00
08-27 23:36Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8899999555$2.00
08-27 23:35Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?BUY0.7799998596$5.00
08-27 23:33Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?BUY0.329999948$4.00
08-27 23:31Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.76$2.00
08-27 23:30Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL0.961$2.31
07-31 21:23Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?SELL0.89$1.00
07-31 21:23Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?SELL0.85$1.93
07-30 23:58Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?BUY0.4099998237$1.00
07-30 23:57Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.1799998704$1.00
07-30 23:55Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?BUY0.179999928$2.00
07-30 23:55Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?BUY0.88$2.00
07-29 19:26Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?SELL0.996$2.21
07-14 20:43Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.9349999766$2.00