Spirit-LT
0x18510d997eba5b8a0102bad7307e70e32bc4ae47
- Realised P&L
- $2.6k
- Volume
- $3.52M
- Markets traded
- 1,888
- Open portfolio
- $582.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,888
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.013US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$2.3kat 0.259Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$1.5kat 0.022US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.139US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
- +$1.3kat 0.074US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:45 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $30.00 |
| 11-01 22:20 | Will Trump say "Burger" in October? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.80 |
| 11-01 21:33 | Will Trump say "Burger" in October? | BUY | 0.18 | $4.50 |
| 11-01 20:57 | Will Trump say "Burger" in October? | SELL | 0.826 | $24.78 |
| 11-01 20:57 | Will Trump say "Burger" in October? | BUY | 0.099 | $3.96 |
| 11-01 18:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 11-01 18:40 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.11 | $11.00 |
| 11-01 01:31 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 01:30 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.0892857143 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 01:27 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | SELL | 0.940188 | $141.03 |
| 11-01 00:59 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 10-31 23:37 | Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.50 |
| 10-31 23:35 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 10-31 22:35 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 10-31 22:32 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $7.20 |