0x18221d40ea381ec04509a82e9ff4c7d648173def
0x18221d40ea381ec04509a82e9ff4c7d648173def
- Realised P&L
- $-8.51
- Volume
- $101.83
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $2.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.475 | $1.53 | +$0.53 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.245 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.055 | $0.23 | −$1.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.04at 0.349Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $178 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$2.31at 0.308SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?
- +$1.76at 0.480Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?
- +$1.24at 0.510Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$0.87at 0.610Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 00:45 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 04:23 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 12:29 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 15:19 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 16:11 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 22:40 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.5499998616 | $1.59 |
| 09-02 23:55 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $220 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.369999879 | $1.59 |
| 09-02 06:31 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999128 | $1.59 |
| 09-01 18:12 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.59 |
| 09-01 06:55 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999877 | $1.59 |
| 08-29 09:21 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799998943 | $1.59 |
| 08-25 09:07 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $184 Week of August 24 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999536 | $1.59 |
| 08-24 01:04 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 Week of August 24 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999902 | $1.59 |
| 08-23 14:53 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | BUY | 0.6909998731 | $1.59 |
| 08-20 23:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.7699999128 | $1.59 |