osentinela
0x17ccff5414f067092a8330122d02b446610881b6
- Realised P&L
- $35.21
- Volume
- $386.55
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $75.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration36.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.256 | $27.88 | +$9.18 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? · Yes | 0.216 | 0.373 | $17.29 | +$7.29 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? · Yes | 0.346 | 0.355 | $10.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.495 | $7.50 | +$2.50 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.394 | 0.542 | $6.88 | +$1.88 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.106 | $6.05 | +$1.05 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 21:46 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? | BUY | 0.3525402428 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 21:44 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? | BUY | 0.339999985 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 04:17 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0879999997 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 05:00 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? | BUY | 0.2159999967 | $10.00 |
| 08-30 20:44 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 23:36 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.0848832586 | $10.00 |
| 08-29 18:26 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3939999625 | $5.00 |