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0x168205abe04b2bbc665fada09297e284edec26ca
- Realised P&L
- $17.07
- Volume
- $1.32M
- Markets traded
- 384
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded384
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.6kat 0.263MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.6kat 0.668US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.033Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$2.0kat 0.384Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$2.0kat 0.133Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 04:38 | Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas? | BUY | 0.39 | $165.77 |
| 10-28 01:07 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.927 | $255.84 |
| 10-28 01:07 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.91 | $29.78 |
| 10-27 23:11 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.2309032538 | $181.25 |
| 10-27 20:19 | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.22 | $99.00 |
| 10-25 21:44 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | SELL | 0.2858703307 | $236.25 |
| 10-24 21:09 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.73 | $365.00 |
| 10-24 21:08 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.53 | $272.48 |
| 10-24 21:08 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.5300205479 | $773.83 |
| 10-24 21:08 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.53 | $302.10 |
| 10-24 21:06 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.73 | $365.00 |
| 10-24 21:05 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.5284684037 | $542.75 |
| 10-13 23:46 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.537 | $639.23 |
| 10-09 00:11 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.54695 | $109.39 |
| 10-05 19:55 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $64.00 |