0x15FbF007D833077883157d3fc579175b33E941De-1769432567690
0x15fbf007d833077883157d3fc579175b33e941de
- Realised P&L
- $472.06
- Volume
- $5.2k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $450.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Despina Papamichail · Despina Papamichail | 0.390 | 0.415 | $106.41 | +$6.41 |
| W35 Kyoto: Hiromi Abe vs Sayaka Ishii · Hiromi Abe | 0.651 | 0.310 | $95.27 | −$104.73 |
| Guangzhou: Bernard Tomic vs Alexandr Binda · Bernard Tomic | 0.830 | 0.835 | $83.50 | +$0.50 |
| Phan Thiet 4: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hunter Heck · Matthew Dellavedova | 0.710 | 0.685 | $68.50 | −$2.50 |
| Rennes: Francesco Maestrelli vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg · Francesco Maestrelli | 0.410 | 0.365 | $36.49 | −$4.50 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.760 | 0.779 | $31.18 | +$0.78 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.735 | $29.01 | −$0.99 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.20 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$397.60at 0.205Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$73.09at 0.750Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$14.01at 0.830Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$10.96at 0.566Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
- +$6.30at 0.930U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 11:26 | Phan Thiet 4: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hunter Heck | BUY | 0.71 | $71.00 |
| 09-17 11:13 | W35 Kyoto: Hiromi Abe vs Sayaka Ishii | BUY | 0.6507592187 | $200.00 |
| 09-17 10:53 | Valencia: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Despina Papamichail | BUY | 0.3899999991 | $100.00 |
| 09-17 10:51 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $762.08 |
| 08-12 10:38 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8199999983 | $77.00 |
| 08-12 10:37 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $75.12 |
| 07-24 14:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 14:10 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $97.05 |
| 07-23 18:01 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |
| 07-23 17:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.71 | $75.00 |
| 07-23 17:43 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5562000124 | $89.71 |
| 07-23 17:30 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.6999999996 | $192.00 |
| 07-23 17:29 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $190.36 |
| 07-23 09:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $10.00 |
| 07-23 09:05 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.20 |