0x15D2A627b55C0742EaD6b7DEeC24FE88Ca31bC1A-1767274000139
0x15d2a627b55c0742ead6b7deec24fe88ca31bc1a
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $22.8k
- Markets traded
- 2
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar8.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded2
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration85.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.275 | $4.6k | +$2.2k |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.130 | $804.68 | −$311.06 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 17:45 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999999 | $221.08 |
| 08-19 21:01 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999988 | $93.14 |
| 08-19 21:00 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.1610064687 | $200.00 |
| 07-30 20:46 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999958 | $30.00 |
| 07-30 20:46 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999958 | $30.00 |
| 07-30 20:46 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1584001584 | $200.00 |
| 07-30 20:45 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.1781093678 | $100.00 |
| 07-29 16:14 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.151188918 | $226.04 |
| 07-29 16:14 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999986 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 11:25 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999996 | $213.93 |
| 07-07 14:43 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0905583909 | $224.16 |
| 07-05 12:02 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1464003215 | $264.87 |
| 05-26 19:11 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.2041014063 | $221.71 |
| 05-01 09:09 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.2199999531 | $3.00 |
| 05-01 09:09 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |