Newnewnewnew
0x15a398ca62dd70b734e877601fe07f2adfabd715
- Realised P&L
- $-737.28
- Volume
- $52.9k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $492.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.030 | $260.22 | −$642.39 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.237 | 0.100 | $161.92 | −$222.31 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.055 | $50.41 | −$58.15 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.044 | $20.20 | −$18.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$257.10at 0.214Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$219.34at 0.052Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of January 2026?
- +$69.31at 0.545Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?
- +$62.38at 0.194Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of January 2026?
- +$31.88at 0.320Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of January 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 12:10 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3599999904 | $15.00 |
| 07-14 12:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2139999981 | $70.00 |
| 07-11 21:56 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.1824999927 | $20.00 |
| 07-11 21:49 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0179999994 | $30.00 |
| 07-10 13:20 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0219999993 | $30.00 |
| 07-10 13:19 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.2232820017 | $40.38 |
| 07-07 12:16 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002999997 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 12:15 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999913 | $11.00 |
| 06-19 06:14 | Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.79 |
| 06-06 06:42 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1709999934 | $20.00 |
| 06-06 06:42 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $24.23 |
| 06-06 06:41 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0389130559 | $57.03 |
| 06-02 20:33 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.3129999921 | $20.00 |
| 06-02 20:29 | Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 20:25 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $19.00 |