Newnewnewnew
0x15a398ca62dd70b734e877601fe07f2adfabd715
- Realised P&L
- $128.56
- Volume
- $56.6k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $624.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.026 | $226.09 | −$676.52 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.347 | 1.000 | $201.39 | +$131.39 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.085 | $156.90 | −$270.39 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.034 | $30.71 | −$77.86 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.021 | $9.31 | −$29.82 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.31 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$251.55at 0.231Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$219.34at 0.052Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of January 2026?
- +$69.32at 0.545Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?
- +$62.38at 0.194Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of January 2026?
- +$31.88at 0.320Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of January 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 12:06 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $43.07 |
| 10-02 12:53 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.34 | $85.00 |
| 10-02 12:51 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.16 | $40.00 |
| 09-29 05:32 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.32 | $20.00 |
| 09-29 05:32 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2399999981 | $20.00 |
| 09-24 06:44 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2999999994 | $50.00 |
| 09-24 06:12 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3599999997 | $50.00 |
| 09-17 11:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0078592432 | $13.32 |
| 09-16 13:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1199999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 12:10 | Will England win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.3599999904 | $15.00 |
| 07-14 12:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2139999981 | $70.00 |
| 07-11 21:56 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.1824999927 | $20.00 |
| 07-11 21:49 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0179999994 | $30.00 |
| 07-10 13:20 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0219999993 | $30.00 |
| 07-10 13:19 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.2232820017 | $40.38 |