0x145758979e1C569A6AB9E7866b34d3F15Ca24207-1779331389708
0x145758979e1c569a6ab9e7866b34d3f15ca24207
- Realised P&L
- $-73.69
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 145
- Open portfolio
- $39.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded145
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.33at 0.641Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
- +$5.03at 0.428Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
- +$4.00at 0.752Evo Morales arrested by June 30?
- +$3.98at 0.674Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$3.76at 0.447Will CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 14:47 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 05:16 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 05:12 | Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 01:29 | Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 01:29 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 15:19 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.0419999997 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 00:23 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.0429999999 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 23:13 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.0379999992 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 23:12 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.0379999992 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 22:49 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 17:37 | Evo Morales arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.0514584427 | $0.59 |
| 09-07 17:37 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $10.03 |
| 09-04 14:52 | Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 12:36 | Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.33 |
| 09-04 10:13 | Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |