Mr-guess
0x140ee52cbec56b3a535b34259d8dd09ac696ea2f
- Realised P&L
- $207.64
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $411.57
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.46at 0.644Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$52.75at 0.656Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$41.65at 0.706U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
- +$37.40at 0.750Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$16.15at 0.650European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 10:11 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999587 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 10:10 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 10:05 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 10-06 09:53 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6499999994 | $100.00 |
| 10-06 09:50 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 01:45 | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9229999946 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 01:43 | Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 01:43 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999284 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 01:40 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.9199999988 | $30.00 |
| 09-14 01:19 | EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? | BUY | 0.9679999985 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 01:18 | Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $30.00 |
| 09-14 01:18 | Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? | BUY | 0.9599999693 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 01:16 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 01:15 | European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $30.00 |
| 04-24 11:07 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5099999985 | $100.00 |