JamesErickson6801
0x12c2a80266dbd07def1733ee19dc5b443655aa71
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $220.1k
- Markets traded
- 391
- Open portfolio
- $701.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded391
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.519 | 0.914 | $487.43 | +$210.80 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.742 | 0.175 | $142.16 | −$458.87 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.660 | 0.939 | $41.29 | +$12.25 |
| Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET? · No | 0.930 | 0.993 | $26.80 | +$1.69 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.155 | $4.18 | −$0.14 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.046 | $0.05 | +$0.04 |
| Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$534.00at 0.500Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?
- +$419.33at 0.130Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?
- +$397.12at 0.320Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigers
- +$322.08at 0.560Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?
- +$262.08at 0.610Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 14:37 | Will Trump say "RINO" or "Republican in Name Only" in April? | BUY | 0.71 | $423.16 |
| 04-21 04:49 | Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.04 |
| 04-12 15:50 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $311.22 |
| 04-12 15:48 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $251.94 |
| 04-12 13:45 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.519 | $276.63 |
| 04-12 13:29 | Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $563.16 |
| 04-12 12:28 | Spread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-1.5) | BUY | 0.87 | $443.70 |
| 04-12 09:39 | Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $31.95 |
| 04-12 00:13 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $42.84 |
| 04-12 00:11 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $111.35 |
| 04-12 00:10 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $90.95 |
| 04-12 00:09 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $67.15 |
| 04-11 18:46 | Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $265.42 |
| 04-11 18:45 | Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $83.26 |
| 04-11 17:54 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $30.48 |