0x117e18de1786b3da101fe7752e232844f988c96c
0x117e18de1786b3da101fe7752e232844f988c96c
- Realised P&L
- $-5.20
- Volume
- $177.82
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $9.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.770 | 0.999 | $2.53 | +$0.58 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.805 | $2.12 | +$1.12 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.525 | $2.10 | +$1.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.875 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.265 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.125 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.195 | $0.31 | −$0.69 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
- +$1.92at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.79at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.63at 0.452Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$1.60at 0.560Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 13:39 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:39 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:00 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:58 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:54 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 00:05 | Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 23:52 | Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 15:52 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 15:41 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 06:41 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 22:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 13:50 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:50 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 09:39 | Will Trump say "Mineral" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 13:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |