0x0F0A2dC58D8114477f9EFA7ef3Ad8bC3e8EDd790-1771633170498
0x0f0a2dc58d8114477f9efa7ef3ad8bc3e8edd790
- Realised P&L
- $7.42
- Volume
- $448.11
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $5.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.480 | $1.71 | +$0.71 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.152 | $1.25 | −$0.75 |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.230 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.245 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.125 | $0.66 | −$0.34 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.045 | $0.23 | −$0.28 |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.09at 0.110Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.89at 0.173Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.06at 0.492Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
- +$0.61at 0.769Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?
- +$0.60at 0.627Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 21:28 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:42 | Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 22:36 | Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 22:36 | Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 22:36 | Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 20:52 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.175 | $1.56 |
| 07-14 20:47 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.33 |
| 07-14 20:35 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.045999957 | $1.00 |
| 07-14 20:29 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0451653986 | $1.37 |
| 07-14 20:26 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0409999622 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 23:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 23:31 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.48 |
| 07-11 21:52 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0169999831 | $1.00 |
| 07-10 20:26 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 16:35 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |