Nik2025
0x0eda2f7c1c79d5e4536b7556128a400f2b13fff0
- Realised P&L
- $-563.41
- Volume
- $98.1k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $12.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration50.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.367 | 0.375 | $5.6k | +$115.62 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.075 | $2.0k | −$469.10 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.155 | $1.7k | −$20.94 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.483 | 0.540 | $1.1k | +$117.28 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.262 | $970.12 | −$29.88 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.041 | $610.94 | +$37.71 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.033 | $176.10 | −$130.90 |
| Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.415 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$583.45 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$115.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$735.56at 0.270Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$654.34at 0.532Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$82.08at 0.645Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?
- +$-79.70at 0.110Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28?
- +$-194.28at 0.140Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 05:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $428.92 |
| 08-04 05:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.2k |
| 08-03 04:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $4.3k |
| 07-10 03:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $346.24 |
| 07-10 03:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.994 | $774.34 |
| 07-09 08:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.038 | $1.14 |
| 07-09 08:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.0k |
| 07-09 06:45 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $7.00 |
| 07-09 06:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999998 | $957.16 |
| 07-09 06:44 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0585540138 | $200.00 |
| 07-08 04:32 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.483315934 | $1.0k |
| 07-08 04:26 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0528168338 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 04:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.8 | $880.00 |
| 06-15 04:24 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.5321929197 | $1000.00 |
| 04-06 04:23 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2695541305 | $1000.00 |