minisobaby
0x0ead7a48afa30eba6413b8d5717569e514019572
- Realised P&L
- $-43.4k
- Volume
- $3.39M
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $43.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.875 | 0.971 | $22.1k | +$2.2k |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.918 | 0.960 | $5.4k | +$232.90 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.925 | 0.980 | $5.3k | +$294.63 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.981 | $5.1k | +$106.79 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes | 0.799 | 0.845 | $2.5k | +$137.04 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.970 | 0.984 | $2.5k | +$35.49 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.933 | 0.973 | $734.14 | +$29.82 |
| Jimmy Lai released by June 30? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.3kat 0.823Epstein client list released by June 30?
- +$9.4kat 0.899Epstein client list released in 2025?
- +$5.1kat 0.497Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.975Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
- +$2.7kat 0.935Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 05:38 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.8 | $737.21 |
| 10-27 05:57 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.78 | $421.78 |
| 10-13 02:49 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $900.00 |
| 10-13 02:49 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $4.0k |
| 09-21 07:11 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.9962471526 | $6.0k |
| 09-17 02:38 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.9 | $674.87 |
| 09-16 03:27 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.9244782761 | $2.0k |
| 09-16 03:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.998 | $10.4k |
| 09-07 13:26 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.9196616105 | $2.0k |
| 09-06 12:30 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.9365175781 | $5.0k |
| 08-12 06:04 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9879999998 | $4.8k |
| 07-29 03:09 | Epstein client list released by July 31? | BUY | 0.9979887569 | $3.8k |
| 07-21 05:22 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 07-20 16:03 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.6k |
| 07-20 15:42 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.6540199217 | $5.0k |