worldhappy
0x0def87742cd371af131de5310759191d8546ab31
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $280.6k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.993 | 0.992 | $1.5k | −$2.25 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.155 | $155.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? · No | 0.890 | 0.978 | $85.31 | +$7.64 |
| Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.994 | $34.77 | +$1.52 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.985 | 0.995 | $26.85 | +$0.26 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.962 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$278.02 |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.26 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.24 |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$274.17at 0.818Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$96.94at 0.845MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$46.00at 0.770Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$40.00at 0.920MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
- +$39.57at 0.091Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 09:23 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.5k |
| 09-17 09:23 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $38.00 |
| 09-17 09:22 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $152.00 |
| 09-17 09:20 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.3 | $1.2k |
| 08-22 09:53 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.38 | $1.5k |
| 07-16 02:12 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.03 |
| 07-15 14:26 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.034 | $47.12 |
| 07-15 12:33 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $11.86 |
| 07-15 11:31 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0400107461 | $24.69 |
| 07-15 11:31 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $12.84 |
| 07-15 06:56 | US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.73 |
| 07-15 06:55 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0441246436 | $88.38 |
| 07-15 06:54 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0147369586 | $28.29 |
| 07-15 06:54 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $15.29 |
| 07-14 22:36 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.78 |