neilarajesh
0x0d9d0cf205d1d1d3d85d235ecef0f8f4a0b278a9
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $198.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · No | 0.991 | 0.988 | $63.82 | −$0.23 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.985 | 0.980 | $48.98 | −$0.27 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.972 | 0.942 | $48.02 | −$1.56 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · No | 0.994 | 0.989 | $20.76 | −$0.12 |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.971 | 0.981 | $14.95 | +$0.14 |
| Will Weibo Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? · No | 0.979 | 0.995 | $1.89 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$585.00at 0.500Solana Up or Down on August 12?
- +$550.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down on July 9?
- +$321.30at 0.370Cardinals vs. Dodgers
- +$312.20at 0.650Tigers vs. Twins
- +$105.00at 0.500XRP Up or Down on July 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-14 11:11 | Tigers vs. Twins | BUY | 0.65 | $579.80 |
| 08-11 08:37 | Solana Up or Down on August 12? | BUY | 0.5 | $585.00 |
| 08-04 12:12 | Cardinals vs. Dodgers | BUY | 0.37 | $188.70 |
| 07-10 11:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 11? | BUY | 0.5 | $545.00 |
| 07-02 07:20 | Guardians vs. Cubs | BUY | 0.41 | $305.74 |
| 07-01 07:59 | Yankees vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.6 | $600.00 |
| 05-13 12:15 | Solana Up or Down on May 13? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.2k |