AlmostAndy
0x0ced4f3afa5d9bfbd7ab82fd124896a7160c12b2
- Realised P&L
- $-170.9k
- Volume
- $9.49M
- Markets traded
- 323
- Open portfolio
- $21.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded323
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.735 | $11.8k | +$569.28 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.306 | 0.745 | $5.4k | +$3.2k |
| US recession by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.105 | $2.2k | −$4.0k |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.475 | $1.9k | −$526.50 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.035 | $386.91 | −$38.97 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$220.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.2kat 0.400Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
- +$27.6kat 0.342Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?
- +$14.9kat 0.708Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Singles Tournament
- +$13.6kat 0.580Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$12.9kat 0.319Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 18:49 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.022 | $220.00 |
| 05-11 16:59 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.64 | $279.01 |
| 05-11 16:58 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.064 | $7.96 |
| 05-05 10:54 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.3 | $26.57 |
| 05-05 10:53 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.9k |
| 05-05 10:53 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.1k |
| 05-05 10:52 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.7 | $980.00 |
| 05-03 13:19 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.67 | $880.38 |
| 04-26 21:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | BUY | 0.19 | $198.79 |
| 04-26 21:00 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 04-20 11:22 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.55 | $27.05 |
| 04-20 11:22 | Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | BUY | 0.55 | $519.63 |
| 04-14 14:48 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.66 | $236.74 |
| 04-14 08:46 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.992 | $2.0k |
| 04-09 21:35 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $376.21 |