Orange.gold
0x0cb51de659f7a4c4f154c91de5c5797ec8a94e68
- Realised P&L
- $-99.98
- Volume
- $829.6k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $526.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.405 | 0.155 | $434.00 | −$699.99 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.380 | $92.39 | −$2.43 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? · No | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur · Alex de Minaur | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.296Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$998.84at 0.260Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$590.05at 0.820Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?
- +$531.58at 0.250US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$369.07at 0.484Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 21:30 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $129.00 |
| 09-09 12:30 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.35 | $1.2k |
| 08-29 13:56 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $545.71 |
| 08-29 13:54 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $410.00 |
| 08-05 07:58 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.46 | $414.00 |
| 08-03 21:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.55 | $495.00 |
| 07-29 00:12 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $250.00 |
| 06-07 22:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $306.94 |
| 06-07 22:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $989.98 |
| 05-27 21:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $124.00 |
| 05-13 19:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.3 | $128.16 |
| 05-04 12:43 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.5k |
| 05-03 21:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.22 | $330.00 |
| 05-03 21:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.22 | $220.00 |
| 05-03 21:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.22 | $440.00 |