JosieC
0x0c395bdaf93ccae9ea08def0b99659a29ed926c0
- Realised P&L
- $10.17
- Volume
- $428.70
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $45.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.991 | 0.996 | $9.96 | +$0.04 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.989 | 0.993 | $9.93 | +$0.04 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $825B by September 30? · No | 0.969 | 0.962 | $9.62 | −$0.07 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.960 | $9.60 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.982 | $4.91 | +$0.76 |
| Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.960 | $1.15 | +$0.14 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 25? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.13at 0.942Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $725B by July 31?
- +$0.77at 0.923Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
- +$0.60at 0.942Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?
- +$0.30at 0.971Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?
- +$0.27at 0.974Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 04:40 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 09-10 02:08 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $825B by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $9.69 |
| 09-03 05:52 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 09-03 04:21 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.9989999843 | $60.00 |
| 09-03 04:20 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 01:58 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 2? | BUY | 0.988 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 00:57 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1T by August 31? | BUY | 0.988 | $4.93 |
| 08-19 00:53 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $9.92 |
| 08-14 07:14 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 08-14 06:58 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $9.91 |
| 08-14 06:53 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.989 | $9.89 |
| 08-12 08:35 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 08-11 08:47 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by August 31? | BUY | 0.989 | $9.26 |
| 07-31 00:16 | Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? | SELL | 0.64 | $0.73 |
| 07-02 00:48 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $725B by July 31? | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $99.74 |