mtmanychoices
0x0a581a10096d3853d8f749e1c027f4d0e5ce0a16
- Realised P&L
- $-7.34
- Volume
- $102.23
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $32.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.06at 0.944Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
- +$-1.06at 0.159Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
- +$-1.06at 0.117Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
- +$-5.27at 0.232Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 17:56 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:55 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.9749998343 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 17:54 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:52 | Will Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.0469999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:52 | Will Trump say "Fake News" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:51 | Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:51 | Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:50 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:49 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.9649994693 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:48 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 12:10 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999969 | $2.90 |