0x08A952381400952c4ff7C1DeDd96132a0D4ada6C-1773175924795
0x08a952381400952c4ff7c1dedd96132a0d4ada6c
- Realised P&L
- $9.96
- Volume
- $237.83
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $30.28
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.968 | $9.68 | +$2.58 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No | 0.873 | 0.997 | $7.10 | +$0.88 |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.859 | 0.923 | $4.62 | +$0.32 |
| Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.860 | $4.30 | +$1.80 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.720 | 0.705 | $3.52 | −$0.07 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.915 | 0.974 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · England | 0.535 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.68at 0.500Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
- +$5.00at 0.500Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
- +$3.16at 0.614Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$3.00at 0.730Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
- +$2.50at 0.500Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 20:57 | Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | SELL | 0.903 | $4.52 |
| 09-11 20:46 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 07-15 19:17 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.535 | $2.68 |
| 07-15 19:15 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.418 | $2.09 |
| 07-14 20:53 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.441 | $2.21 |
| 07-14 20:40 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9425 | $2.00 |
| 07-14 19:53 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6424998667 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 21:47 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4425001969 | $1.00 |
| 06-29 19:54 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.534 | $2.67 |
| 06-26 15:25 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.919 | $4.60 |
| 06-16 06:31 | Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? | SELL | 0.39 | $1.95 |
| 06-01 19:34 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.071 | $0.35 |
| 05-25 16:28 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.7849999576 | $2.50 |
| 05-19 09:13 | Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.3599999376 | $3.00 |
| 05-16 18:44 | Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |