0x0860a0ef57daf2896b1905529981674ae8c14f16
0x0860a0ef57daf2896b1905529981674ae8c14f16
- Realised P&L
- $25.97
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $18.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy vs. Belarus end in a draw? · Yes | 0.021 | 1.000 | $13.99 | +$13.70 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.195 | $2.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.004 | $2.02 | +$0.03 |
| Will Belarus win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.39 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
| Will Turkiye win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Serbia vs. Finland end in a draw? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Serbia win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Slovakia win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.97 |
| Will Austria vs. Kosovo end in a draw? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Romania win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.24 |
| Will Norway vs. Romania end in a draw? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.24at 0.033Will Russia vs. Nigeria end in a draw?
- +$-0.38at 0.009Will Nigeria win on 2026-10-06?
- +$-0.41at 0.050Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 7?
- +$-0.63at 0.002Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$-1.09at 0.009Will India vs. Uruguay end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 16:48 | Will Slovakia win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.013 | $0.13 |
| 10-13 16:47 | Will Belgium win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.1099999951 | $2.00 |
| 10-13 16:41 | Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.0149999999 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:30 | Will Slovakia win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.04 | $0.84 |
| 10-13 16:29 | Will Turkiye win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:28 | Will Kosovo win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:28 | Will Austria vs. Kosovo end in a draw? | BUY | 0.0299999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:26 | Will Serbia vs. Finland end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:25 | Will Romania win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.006 | $0.24 |
| 10-13 16:24 | Will Italy vs. Belarus end in a draw? | BUY | 0.021 | $0.29 |
| 10-13 16:24 | Will Serbia win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.0239999998 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:24 | Will Belarus win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.40 |
| 10-13 16:24 | Will Norway vs. Romania end in a draw? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:06 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.50 |
| 10-07 15:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |