PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

aviad102

0x07e4a017a44cadb8f027e02c06566ff25e376c18

Realised P&L
$505.40
Volume
$30.0k
Markets traded
84
Open portfolio
$794.45

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded84
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration50.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · No0.0900.105$232.59+$32.60
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? · No0.5060.500$98.81$1.19
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July? · Yes0.6790.640$94.31$5.69
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? · Yes0.6460.370$57.22$42.78
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · No0.7120.745$52.31+$2.31
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes0.0860.089$52.09+$2.09
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? · Yes0.5190.352$33.88$16.12
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? · Yes0.0900.090$29.80+$0.00
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? · Yes0.0900.050$27.63$22.37
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat? · Yes0.0670.051$22.79$7.21
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes0.0340.039$22.76+$2.76
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.3780.276$21.84$8.16
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.6700.710$21.19+$1.19
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2300.115$10.00$10.00
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? · Yes0.3010.100$9.97$20.03

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 05:00Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.669999995$20.00
08-02 04:57Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?BUY0.0904849632$50.00
08-02 04:57Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?BUY0.085908593$50.00
08-02 04:54Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?SELL0.1049800223$39.52
07-31 09:51GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?SELL0.86$79.80
07-29 10:41Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.8099999964$220.00
07-29 10:40Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?SELL0.19$28.50
07-29 10:38Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.2$30.00
07-29 10:34Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?SELL0.1011128747$40.58
07-29 10:33Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.516$125.54
07-29 10:33Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.429$22.17
07-26 12:50Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?BUY0.6786088502$100.00
07-22 07:33Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?BUY0.519467713$50.00
07-22 07:28Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026?BUY0.2215810221$20.00
07-17 05:58Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?BUY0.6465731619$100.00