nigeiwoguolai
0x06c1d2910ea748c47db6b745acf40301fe8a2727
- Realised P&L
- $-21.2k
- Volume
- $325.2k
- Markets traded
- 136
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded136
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.4kat 0.400Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
- +$2.4kat 0.142Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$2.0kat 0.641Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 24?
- +$1.7kat 0.862LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)
- +$1.5kat 0.729Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 14:04 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.899 | $89.90 |
| 09-12 14:03 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.898 | $5.39 |
| 09-12 14:03 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.54 | $55.07 |
| 09-11 09:21 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.815 | $81.50 |
| 06-25 15:34 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.511 | $306.60 |
| 06-25 15:34 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.621 | $621.00 |
| 06-24 15:28 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.75 | $75.00 |
| 06-24 15:28 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.72 | $720.00 |
| 06-23 11:16 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.86 | $688.00 |
| 06-21 16:53 | Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.69 | $690.00 |
| 06-21 16:53 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.7 | $700.00 |
| 06-19 02:45 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | BUY | 0.87 | $870.00 |
| 06-17 15:58 | Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.72 | $360.00 |
| 06-17 15:56 | Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | BUY | 0.26 | $286.00 |
| 06-17 15:54 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.77 | $770.00 |