0x056812df6e07aa4bf2e591a448b4ed3e6de12cfa
- Realised P&L
- $10.95
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $39.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.22at 0.180US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$21.13at 0.146US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$15.83at 0.240Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
- +$3.89at 0.0390 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$3.43at 0.510Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 15:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $8.02 |
| 08-04 15:56 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | SELL | 0.5133290653 | $8.02 |
| 07-31 13:59 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 12:25 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0749999325 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 15:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 15:41 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 07-13 19:02 | US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 07-13 18:22 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.1905846334 | $4.89 |
| 07-11 22:20 | Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 07-10 20:15 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Belgium? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 07-09 21:20 | Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco? | BUY | 0.7619999939 | $2.00 |
| 07-09 07:33 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 21:08 | Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 17:33 | Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Egypt? | BUY | 0.702 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 17:20 | Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Egypt? | BUY | 0.792999866 | $1.00 |