PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x056812df6e07aa4bf2e591a448b4ed3e6de12cfa

Realised P&L
$-3.52
Volume
$3.0k
Markets traded
107
Open portfolio
$29.47

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded107
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? · Yes0.3000.440$7.33+$2.33
Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes0.3000.205$3.42$1.58
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · Yes0.0410.026$3.17$1.83
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.0720.031$2.15$2.85
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.3300.140$2.12$2.88
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.1000.042$2.08$2.92
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yes0.3800.145$1.91$3.09
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1080.038$1.78$3.22
OPEC dissolves in 2026? · Yes0.1100.038$1.75$3.25
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.4890.151$1.55$3.45
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes0.2700.055$1.02$3.98
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes0.1300.018$0.71$4.29
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · Yes0.3400.165$0.49$0.51

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-17 15:03Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?BUY0.3299999591$5.00
08-04 16:32Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?BUY0.1132074511$1.00
08-04 15:57US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?SELL0.77$8.02
08-04 15:56US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?SELL0.5133290653$8.02
07-31 13:59Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?BUY0.33999983$1.00
07-19 12:25Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0749999325$1.00
07-15 15:27US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.4799999808$5.00
07-14 15:41US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?BUY0.32$5.00
07-13 19:02US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?BUY0.84$1.00
07-13 18:220 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?SELL0.1905846334$4.89
07-11 22:20Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?BUY0.75$1.00
07-10 20:15Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Belgium?BUY0.8$1.00
07-09 21:20Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?BUY0.7619999939$2.00
07-09 07:33Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.1299999789$5.00
07-07 21:08Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia?BUY0.719999856$1.00