PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

robszm

0x04ba214f93320e3adc278dcfec86386bc738bb60

Realised P&L
$29.90
Volume
$438.80
Markets traded
19
Open portfolio
$84.01

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded19
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample2 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · Yes0.4200.455$26.39+$2.03
Will the Republicans win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4700.535$11.77+$1.43
Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No0.3900.645$11.01+$4.35
Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.1070.095$9.79−$1.23
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election? · Yes0.4100.470$6.58+$0.84
Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3400.415$5.81+$1.05
Will the Democrats win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4300.380$3.42−$0.45
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? · Yes0.1800.205$1.84+$0.23
Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No0.2900.130$1.82−$2.24
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2800.130$1.30−$1.50
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.085$1.27−$0.38
Will Democrats win young men in the midterms? · No0.2200.140$1.26−$0.72
Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.1100.053$1.07−$1.13
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.1400.066$0.66−$0.74
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026? · No0.0700.000$0.00−$1.33

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-07 19:24Will the Democrats win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.43$3.87
10-07 14:45Will the Republicans win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?BUY0.47$10.34
10-06 12:18Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.1$1.21
10-05 14:52Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?BUY0.42$20.58
10-05 14:51Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?BUY0.42$3.78
10-05 12:35Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.1051219512$4.31
10-04 16:28Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?BUY0.41$5.74
10-03 23:17Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.3899999789$6.66
10-03 17:17Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.11$3.30
10-03 17:16Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.11$2.20
10-01 17:55Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?BUY0.11$1.65
09-30 23:29Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?BUY0.34$4.76
09-27 13:38Will "Sense and Sensibility" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.29$4.06
09-27 11:56Will "Unabomber" be the top global Netflix movie this week?BUY0.07$1.40
09-26 13:02Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?BUY0.28$5.60