PavtheGreat
0x048a9d673a40171a1cf44ef518893d35fdf09be4
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $411.8k
- Markets traded
- 475
- Open portfolio
- $22.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded475
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.321Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
- +$694.75at 0.494Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
- +$680.00at 0.320Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$514.10at 0.582Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$474.06at 0.337Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:46 | Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5584491589 | $298.77 |
| 11-01 21:45 | Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2964255319 | $83.59 |
| 11-01 21:40 | Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | SELL | 0.9377558805 | $147.51 |
| 11-01 19:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $452.40 |
| 11-01 16:02 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $118.47 |
| 11-01 16:00 | Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30? | BUY | 0.6739331985 | $303.26 |
| 11-01 15:58 | Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 15? | BUY | 0.8978723404 | $84.40 |
| 11-01 15:33 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $5.85 |
| 11-01 15:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.63 | $1.0k |
| 10-30 18:51 | Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8? | BUY | 0.9065787037 | $195.82 |
| 10-30 18:42 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8? | BUY | 0.1826602564 | $56.99 |
| 10-29 22:35 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.75 | $502.50 |
| 10-29 22:30 | Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $107.10 |
| 10-29 21:55 | US imports Russian diesel by December 31? | BUY | 0.6422280702 | $366.07 |
| 10-29 21:50 | Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.0397356303 | $4.73 |