PavtheGreat
0x048a9d673a40171a1cf44ef518893d35fdf09be4
- Realised P&L
- $635.63
- Volume
- $324.8k
- Markets traded
- 361
- Open portfolio
- $26.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded361
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.321Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
- +$923.95at 0.120Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$769.67at 0.145Will Taylor Burks be the MO-05 Republican nominee?
- +$709.94at 0.155Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
- +$694.75at 0.494Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 16:21 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.3316275 | $132.65 |
| 09-16 13:56 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.0731516667 | $21.95 |
| 09-16 13:56 | Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 09-15 23:25 | Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $304.00 |
| 09-15 16:12 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.686660515 | $319.98 |
| 09-15 16:11 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4843201439 | $269.28 |
| 09-15 16:06 | Amazon announces a training pause by October 31? | BUY | 0.81 | $97.20 |
| 09-15 16:05 | Meta announces a training pause by October 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $105.00 |
| 09-15 16:04 | Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31? | BUY | 0.73 | $51.83 |
| 09-15 15:46 | Meta matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $160.85 |
| 09-15 15:42 | SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | BUY | 0.6045224719 | $215.21 |
| 09-15 15:33 | Will "Primetime" score at least 87 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.7617246753 | $175.96 |
| 09-14 19:18 | Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.7 | $350.00 |
| 09-14 19:14 | Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.88 | $68.64 |
| 09-14 19:06 | Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by October 31? | BUY | 0.5634125 | $139.73 |