PolyBot

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Traders

PavtheGreat

0x048a9d673a40171a1cf44ef518893d35fdf09be4

Realised P&L
$-2.6k
Volume
$411.8k
Markets traded
475
Open portfolio
$22.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded475
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration6.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 18? · Yes0.7640.998$1.3k+$296.75
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · No0.7440.865$1.2k+$169.27
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No0.8400.997$1.2k+$188.40
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.980$1.1k+$53.21
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · No0.8040.997$943.22+$182.13
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5400.805$744.63+$245.13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.2200.885$708.00+$532.00
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · No0.8210.625$625.00−$196.39
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? · No0.7500.805$619.85+$42.35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes0.8600.992$588.26+$78.28
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? · No0.7900.865$566.58+$49.13
Texas Senate favorite on November 2? · Talarico0.8990.985$511.94+$44.65
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? · No0.7500.745$499.15−$3.35
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6500.645$496.65−$3.85
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? · Yes0.6390.625$490.62−$10.89

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 21:46Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?BUY0.5584491589$298.77
11-01 21:45Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30, 2026?BUY0.2964255319$83.59
11-01 21:40Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?SELL0.9377558805$147.51
11-01 19:13US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?BUY0.87$452.40
11-01 16:02Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?SELL0.27$118.47
11-01 16:00Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 30?BUY0.6739331985$303.26
11-01 15:58Putin meets with Iranian officials by November 15?BUY0.8978723404$84.40
11-01 15:33US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?SELL0.74$5.85
11-01 15:31Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?SELL0.63$1.0k
10-30 18:51Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?BUY0.9065787037$195.82
10-30 18:42Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?BUY0.1826602564$56.99
10-29 22:35Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?BUY0.75$502.50
10-29 22:30Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?BUY0.9$107.10
10-29 21:55US imports Russian diesel by December 31?BUY0.6422280702$366.07
10-29 21:50Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?SELL0.0397356303$4.73