0x0371AE70577D997d71d940D10f2a7899afc93683-1771900576170
0x0371ae70577d997d71d940d10f2a7899afc93683
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $59.5k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.255 | $1.1k | +$151.45 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 1.000 | $1.0k | +$720.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.165 | $447.00 | −$275.00 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.065 | $315.25 | −$684.74 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.135 | 0.052 | $105.00 | −$165.00 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · Yes | 0.285 | 0.133 | $77.77 | −$89.07 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.237 | 0.060 | $43.74 | −$129.11 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.018 | $14.61 | −$72.92 |
| Fight to Go the Distance? · No | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.91 |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) · Khamzat Chimaev | 0.736 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$395.50 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.614US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.451UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
- +$692.00at 0.570US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$209.00at 0.539Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$163.64at 0.550US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 04:58 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | SELL | 0.0765430814 | $62.90 |
| 05-10 04:56 | NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0289832853 | $23.22 |
| 05-10 04:55 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2199999992 | $200.00 |
| 05-10 04:36 | UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.81 | $30.50 |
| 05-10 03:21 | Fight to Go the Distance? | SELL | 0.71 | $72.22 |
| 05-10 03:19 | Fight to Go the Distance? | SELL | 0.71 | $54.17 |
| 05-10 03:07 | Fight to Go the Distance? | SELL | 0.72 | $97.65 |
| 05-09 23:36 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $200.00 |
| 05-09 23:33 | Fight to Go the Distance? | BUY | 0.6912044237 | $500.00 |
| 04-17 18:44 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | SELL | 0.1036552326 | $58.23 |
| 04-17 04:03 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.70 |
| 04-12 18:16 | Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.68 | $5.47 |
| 04-12 17:12 | Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.85 | $170.00 |
| 04-12 17:12 | Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.85 | $170.00 |
| 04-12 17:12 | Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.84 | $35.28 |