0x01ca683a887185388a7f181bff270e3405f2708e
0x01ca683a887185388a7f181bff270e3405f2708e
- Realised P&L
- $-135.41
- Volume
- $40.0k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $172.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$270.68at 0.034Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$105.84at 0.080US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$95.86at 0.343Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$70.00at 0.300Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
- +$39.17at 0.338U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 21:36 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $20.00 |
| 10-19 21:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 21:35 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0789999991 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 21:33 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999999 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 11:22 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.819317228 | $60.00 |
| 09-22 11:14 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3378256 | $63.34 |
| 09-11 08:39 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | BUY | 0.0257797659 | $19.00 |
| 09-11 08:37 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 09-11 08:18 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 08:17 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1415094333 | $20.00 |
| 09-11 08:14 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? | BUY | 0.0771483402 | $30.00 |
| 09-11 08:14 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? | BUY | 0.0592314715 | $20.00 |
| 09-11 08:13 | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October? | BUY | 0.059435364 | $20.00 |
| 08-05 03:53 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.6699999915 | $15.00 |
| 08-05 03:52 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0177644435 | $20.00 |