PolyBot

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Traders

0x01ca683a887185388a7f181bff270e3405f2708e

0x01ca683a887185388a7f181bff270e3405f2708e

Realised P&L
$-135.41
Volume
$40.0k
Markets traded
41
Open portfolio
$172.41

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded41
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample11 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1200.095$39.58−$10.42
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.1240.095$30.70−$9.30
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November? · Yes0.0910.038$29.69−$40.31
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? · Yes0.1200.105$26.25−$3.75
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? · Yes0.0770.065$25.28−$4.72
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · Yes0.0970.055$11.34−$8.66
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0250.017$6.80−$3.20
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0790.033$2.09−$2.91
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October? · Yes0.1020.001$0.69−$69.31
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$20.00
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00−$40.00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00−$20.80
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? · No0.0700.000$0.00−$20.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00−$30.00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-19 21:36Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1099999999$20.00
10-19 21:35Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.025$10.00
10-19 21:35Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0789999991$5.00
10-19 21:33France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?BUY0.1399999999$20.00
09-22 11:22Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.819317228$60.00
09-22 11:14US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?SELL0.3378256$63.34
09-11 08:39Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?BUY0.0257797659$19.00
09-11 08:37US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.08$20.00
09-11 08:18Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?BUY0.01$10.00
09-11 08:17Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1415094333$20.00
09-11 08:14Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?BUY0.0771483402$30.00
09-11 08:14Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?BUY0.0592314715$20.00
09-11 08:13Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?BUY0.059435364$20.00
08-05 03:53US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?BUY0.6699999915$15.00
08-05 03:52US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?BUY0.0177644435$20.00