0x004Ae6db59f39ecFe8Fc28B3DB8acAbFF59DF9E5-1772290128871
0x004ae6db59f39ecfe8fc28b3db8acabff59df9e5
- Realised P&L
- $48.91
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 277
- Open portfolio
- $18.88
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded277
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.24at 0.399Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$5.39at 0.090US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$4.43at 0.140US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
- +$2.73at 0.350US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.34at 0.360Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 18:54 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.793 | $3.97 |
| 07-26 13:11 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.80 |
| 07-24 17:40 | Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.05 |
| 07-24 06:20 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $3.48 |
| 07-23 05:48 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.085 | $0.43 |
| 07-19 21:43 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9389999946 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 09:41 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.40 |
| 07-17 09:39 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.995 | $9.95 |
| 07-16 14:13 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $4.06 |
| 07-16 12:17 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $0.93 |
| 07-12 17:17 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 17:17 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.00 |
| 07-12 05:40 | Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 130m by August 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $2.16 |
| 07-10 06:58 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31? | SELL | 0.912 | $0.91 |
| 07-08 09:25 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.56 | $3.36 |